KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FL - As NASA faces growing pressure to extend the space shuttle's life beyond 2010, Administrator Michael Griffin has directed the space shuttle program to explore ways in which the space agency could support continuation of shuttle flights until 2015. Last week, email communications surfaced from John Coggeshall of Johnson Space Center's Manifest and Schedules department outlining the initial requirements for the life extension analysis.

The SSP (Ed: Sapce Shuttle Program) program in conjunction with Cx (Ed: Constellation) and ISS have been asked by the administrator to put together some manifest options to assess extending shuttle flights to 2015.

It's interesting to note that the goal isn't merely to spread out the remaining 10 shuttle flights until 2015 as that, "doesn't support ISS requirements," according to the email. Additionally, the email notes that a 5-year extension to the shuttle program would require orbiters to undergo Orbiter Maintenance Down Period (MDP) to keep them flightworthy.

Keeping all three orbiters in service isn't a requirement, as logistics support and crew transport for ISS would require fewer shuttle flights (two or three per year) than the station's assembly sequence. That could reduce the cost associated with continuing the program, although it should be noted that even when no shuttle's are flying, the program still eats up over $3 billion per year from NASA's budget.

The goal of the study is to explore ways to help bridge the gap until Orion and Ares enter operational service by 2015.

However, although recent statements by NASA officials have indicated some willingness to undertake hypothetical studies on what it would take to keep the shuttle flying (possibly to demonstrate the unfeasibility of the concept), this communication implies the possibility of more concrete measures in next year's NASA budget and planning.

"SSP would like to have some options developed for review by senior management by the end of September. The result of the review might be a formal budget assessment of a option(s)," said Coggeshall.

Recently, NASA has faced scathing criticism over its plans for retiring the shuttle, which would result in a 5-year period in which the United States would have no human space transportation system while the Orion crew exploration vehicle and Ares I rocket are being developed. Current plans call for the agency to rely on using the Russian Soyuz spacecraft to transport crews to and from the space station. Recent developments in the former Soviet republic of Georgia have cast in doubt the reliability of the Russian government as a partner in international endeavours. At worst, the Russians could back out of the space station program and leave the rest of the international partners with no means for crew transport.

In light of this, people from the space industry, elected officials and a growing number of private citizens have joined a chorus demanding NASA do something to reduce the spaceflight gap, either by extending the shuttle's life or accelerating Constellation, or both.

Last week, Republican president candidate Sen. John McCain, along with Senators Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) and David Vitter (R-LA), delivered a letter to President Bush to urge him to support extending the shuttle program and provide adequate (increased) funding for Constellation. Both he and Democratic candidate Barack Obama have released position papers promising to push for additional funding for NASA to support Constellation development and minimize the gap.

At a recent roundtable discussion with McCain, Florida space industry officials told the Senator that the only sure way to minimize the gap would be to continue flying the shuttle. Even if funding for Constellation were increased, for technical reasons, development of the new vehicles could be accelerated only to a certain extent and not enough to close the gap.

However, it should be noted that the termination of the space shuttle program has been underway for about two years already. Continuing to fly the shuttle beyond 2010 would require more than just technical and manifest considerations. Existing contracts would have to be renewed, new contracts let to take the place of ones that have already expired or been terminated by NASA, and production lines that have been dismantled would need to be rebuilt.

Former NASA space shuttle program manager, and now deputy associate administrator for strategic partnerships, Wayne Hale addressed this topic in a recent blog posting.

"It is nice to have eloquent oratory and high flown philosophical statements, but the real way that real programs are really controlled is through the money," Hale wrote. "When the logistics and supply budget is stopped, the program is over. Momentum and warehoused supplies can carry on for a short period, but when those are exhausted, its time for the museum."

Hale highlighted the procurement and logistics problems NASA would face by extending the life of the program. "Smaller, but still significant, percentages of vendors for SSME, Orbiter, and RSRB have also been terminated."

The bottom line for all of this talk about continuing to fly the shuttle beyond 2010 is that the transition from shuttle to Constellation has already begun. Likewise, the termination of the shuttle program is well underway, even if the signs aren't yet visibly obvious. To extend the life of the space shuttle would require not only changing future plans, but reversing course on initiatives already in progress, which would be a significant task in and of itself.

Still, it looks as though NASA higher-ups are beginning to feel the pressure to reduce the spaceflight gap and are reacting. While still committed to retiring the shuttle in 2010 after the space station is assembled, it appears that the agency is cognizant of the prevailing winds of political opinion. Whether or not anything will change vis-a-vis current plans remains to be seen, but all parties agree the gap is a serious issue that demands attention.